Kirill Marchenko scores hat trick in Maple Leafs overtime loss to Sabres

Marchenko scored three goals on three shots Thursday, but the performance does not change his fantasy value given his usual output.

By Fantasy Roundup Staff · October 16, 2026 · Updated October 16, 2026

Kirill Marchenko scored three goals, including one on the power play, on three shots in 18:36 in the Maple Leafs' 4-5 overtime loss to the Sabres on Thursday, October 15. He added three hits and finished even in the defeat.

The hat trick came on an unusually efficient night, but managers should treat it as one game rather than a shift in his role or production. His underlying play grades 86 out of 100 among forwards, a measure of how sustainable his scoring is based on shots, scoring chances and ice time.

Fantasy impact

Player by player

Kirill Marchenko

Marchenko converted all three of his shots into goals Thursday, a shooting percentage no player maintains over any stretch of games. With the Columbus Blue Jackets before joining Toronto, he averaged 0.33 goals and 2.7 shots per game across 219 games, meaning Thursday's efficiency was a one-off rather than a reflection of increased opportunity. His 18:36 of ice time sat below his recent average of 18:49 a night.

The underlying numbers suggest his scoring will regress toward his usual rates. His process grade of 86 out of 100 among forwards reflects solid shot generation and ice time, but not elite opportunity. With the Blue Jackets, he averaged 0.81 points per game with 2:49 of power-play time a night. The Maple Leafs have four games left this week, on Thursday, Saturday, Monday and Tuesday.

What to do

• Hold Marchenko as a secondary scorer with four games left this week.

• Do not chase the hat trick by adding him if he is available, as his recent averages show 0.81 points per game.

• Expect his production to settle toward his usual rates of 0.33 goals and 2.7 shots per game.

Schedule this week