Contact Kings

Looking for the next unexpected power surge

By Justin May · March 7, 2026 · Updated October 12, 2026

Geraldo Perdomo, Brice Turang, Maikel Garcia, Jacob Wilson - all players who increased their fantasy value in a big way after a 2025 power jump. If you’ve tried to buy any in dynasty leagues this offseason, you know it’s damn near impossible. So instead of paying full price for those guys, let’s try to find who’s next. After all, that’s what fantasy baseball is about - trying to stay ahead of the curve. Fantasy baseball is trending towards contact hitters being relevant again, as some hitters who would have been faded in the past due to lack of power upside, are instead getting a value bump for their strong hit tool. Along those lines, there’s certain criteria we can look for to spot future breakouts. Players we’re looking at here have strong contact rates (duh), and have an ability to pull the ball in the air. After all, Alex Bregman just made almost $200 million because of his hit tool and ability to pull the ball in the air effectively. MLB teams have caught on, but it’s been an underrated skill for fantasy. No, I’m not here to tell you that Alex Bregman will have a great year - or that someone like Miguel Vargas will hit 20+ HRs .Those players have at least average power to pair with a good approach - we’re not looking for lukewarm takes. Since we’re focusing on unexpected power surges, I made sure not to include any hitter who has hit 15 HRs in any past single season. Also with all due respect to players like Steven Kwan and Nico Hoerner, even though I love those guys, I’m mainly looking for younger players who have been in the league less than 4 years. I’ll be the first one to tell you that there’s multiple ways for players to succeed in the majors - they’re all pros for a reason. So I really hate shoehorning players into certain stat thresholds to fit a narrative. Even though these guys are all strong contact hitters, that’s just one part of evaluating these guys - so let’s dive into it: Nolan Schanuel An Angels player? Oh boy I can’t believe I’m going down this path. I haven’t been the biggest fan of how they’ve handled player development lately - and Schanuel is one of those who was rushed to the majors after just 22 minor league games. It stands to reason that development might take a few years in his case. Schanuel is still young, having just turned 24 - but after three straight seasons of a sub-.400 SLG - is that his ceiling? The metrics paint a better picture for him when looking at year over year data. First, he increased his bat speed over 2 mph from 2024 to 2025. It may not sound like a lot, but it was the 6th best improvement among all hitters per MLB.com. He’s also improved his fly ball rate, pull rate, and launch angle each year so far. Looking at his stance, he’s adjusted his hand placement and leg kick over the past couple seasons, and his 2025 stance and swing have been the best yet - he’s much better at staying through the ball with his swing, and you can tell he’s trying to do damage in the air more often. We can also certainly make a case for a power bump based on his size. At 6’2” 220 lbs, he has a large enough frame to hit for more power than he has. He did hit 19 HRs in 59 games in his last college season - metal bats aside, he’s at least got some history there. Perhaps a good offseason regimen can help him get back to that. Per an article from MLB.com, Schanuel is doing exactly that - working on improving bat speed again for 2026. It’ll be tough to have the same gains he did last year, but it’s a testament to his makeup that he continues to make improvements. We know he has elite contact ability, with a 91% zone contact rate and a 12.6% K rate - both marks near the top of the league. So pairing that contact with steady bat speed improvement is huge. Another 2 mph bat speed gain in 2026 is probably wishful thinking, but every little bit helps. Despite hitting 13 and 12 HRs the past two seasons, with another offseason improving bat speed and approach - he is certainly a player who could push for 20 HRs this year. Caleb Durbin Durbin has been viewed as a low ceiling player for fantasy purposes. He was a 14th round pick out of college back in 2021, and was on the older side for a rookie in 2025. His contact rate was elite - a 93.5% zone contact rate and 88% overall contact rate - but the power upside is questionable. The main culprit of this is his 6th percentile bat speed. It’s fair to question whether he can provide fantasy value without a significant increase in bat speed. Looking deeper, I think he can. Despite not hitting the ball hard, Durbin does pull the ball in the air consistently. His pull rate has been well above 50% at most of his minor league stops. In fact, it was much lower in the majors last year at 43%. He still managed to hit 11 HRs with that lower pull rate, even factoring in his bat speed and exit velocity numbers being near the bottom of the league. His highest pull rate was 56% back in AAA in 2024, where he also produced his highest ISO (.184) and hit 10 HRs in just 375 plate appearances. Given his history, there’s still plenty of room for him to pull the ball more frequently in 2026 and increase his power output. A big positive for Durbin is his approach. He measures near the top of the league in ideal attack angle percentage and squared up rate, while his swing path tilt is among the lowest in the league. This tells me that he isn’t deliberately trying to lift the ball to hit homers, and instead he’s consistently on time with his swings and also gets the most out of his power. A player with a similar approach is Alex Bregman, who also relies on pulling fly balls and using a pitcher’s velocity against them. Bregman does have better bat speed and raw power, but he’s also a perennial 25+ HR threat. We can’t expect that output from Durbin, but it at least gives us an example of that same approach being successful. The elephant in the room is the ballpark change - as Milwaukee was a nice park for right-handed power. There’s some concern that the green monster will swallow up a lot of Durbin’s pulled fly balls - leading to a lot of doubles instead of homers. It’s possible that his lower swing path tilt hurts him here, but I’m willing to bet on the hit tool leading to success. It sounds like the Red Sox have the same idea, as Craig Breslow mentioned specifically that he felt Durbin’s ability to pull the ball will play well at Fenway. Seeing a savvy organization like the Red Sox willing to go out and acquire Durbin is encouraging. A 20 HR season would be optimistic here, but I see no reason why he can’t build on his 11 HR rookie season. The approach is sound and has room for growth. It seems like a lot of folks are sleeping on him in both redraft and dynasty. He should get significant playing time for the Red Sox, and could be a big value riser in 2026. Daylen Lile Probably the most basic name in the article considering the hype he’s getting. Lile burst onto the scene with a .299/.347/.498 slash line and 9 HRs and 8 SBs in just over half a season’s worth of games. He was also a beast during the fantasy playoffs, further cementing his 2025 legacy. After having that type of season at age 22, I had to include him here. Perhaps the most encouraging thing to see was his lack of strikeouts - his 16% K rate put him in the 82nd percentile among qualified MLB players. So many rookies come up and struggle with strikeouts, so it’s always nice to see a player who isn’t overwhelmed right away by MLB pitching. The metrics also back up his solid hit tool, as he posted a 90.8% zone contact rate - and despite a relatively high chase rate, he ranked in the top third of the league in contact rate outside the zone. Along with the solid hit tool, Lile has shown the ability to hit the ball in the air consistently. Now, the insane 100th percentile sweet-spot rate probably won’t stick in year two, but he did have a groundball rate well below 40% at most of his stops in the minors. His swing is fairly line-drive oriented, so he could help remedy that by pulling the ball more often. But putting it all together, his ability to square up the ball consistently and hit it in the air helps the power play up. Not having any issues against secondary pitches also raises his floor for both ratios and power quite a bit. The hype around Lile has some tossing his name in the ring as a 20/20 candidate, so I’m not on an island here expecting a power increase. Still, most projection systems have him hitting about 10 HRs. I’m actually more concerned about his defense causing him to lose playing time compared to his bat - so hopefully that doesn’t factor in this year. He’ll need to make some adjustments in order to boost his power output as stated above, but with the skills he’s shown so far and being just 23 on Opening Day, he’s got the potential to make it happen. Justin Crawford He almost feels like a bonus name here since he’s the only one without MLB experience. The son of former big leaguer Carl Crawford (feel old, yet?), Justin has flashed similar hitting ability and speed so far in the minors. But Carl’s single-season high in HRs was 19 - can Justin do the impossible and beat his dad’s career high? At first glance, it seems like it won’t happen. Crawford has struggled to lift the ball throughout his minor league career - aside from a small Complex league sample years ago, his lowest groundball rate in any season was 59% in AAA last year. I’m actually impressed that he found a way to hit 7 HRs in 2025 with that groundball rate - I would’ve guessed he hit 1, maybe 2. It’s clear he doesn’t fit the same mold as the others in here, but perhaps there’s still room for growth. Could that growth come in the form of an approach change? Rumor has it, he’s attempting to lift the ball more. Looking at his stance and swing from late last season and spring this year compared to previous years, there are tangible changes. He adjusted his hand positioning and appears more crouched in his stance - allowing him to stay under the ball better. His max EV last season was a solid 110.6 mph, and despite the high ground ball rate, he still managed a respectable .452 SLG. It’s pretty crazy for him to produce that many extra base hits without lifting the ball often - but it’s a testament to his hitting ability. His raw power also raises his ceiling if he is able to make even minor approach changes. Just to reiterate the pure hitting ability, last year in AAA he posted a 92.2% zone contact rate. Despite a high chase rate, he produced a whopping 72% contact rate outside the zone - a mark that would’ve placed him near the top 10 among MLB hitters last season. A drawback to this contact ability is that not all contact is good contact. It’s true that putting the ball in play is better than striking out, but trying to put every pitch in play can lead to a lot of soft contact, which turns into outs at the major league level. Oddly enough we want him to strike out more if it also leads to more impact on the ball. In reality we’re just hoping that these changes to his stance and swing stick, and don’t lead to a drastic decline in contact ability in the majors. I’m willing to bet that guys like him who make elite contact can make the necessary adjustments, though. Fortunately, he’s a virtual lock to start in CF for the Phillies on opening day. We know he’s likely to provide solid ratios along with top end speed, but an approach change could be a big bump to his value. 20 homers to top his dad’s career high is a pipe dream, especially in year one - but Crawford’s solid raw power and plus hit tool provide a higher power ceiling than most are anticipating. These guys all bring something different to the table in terms of overall approach, but there’s more than one way to succeed in the majors. All of these guys have a strong hit tool, and with a minor tweak here and there, each of them could increase their power output in 2026 and beyond. Power is king for fantasy baseball, but don’t sleep on these contact kings.