Hidden Bounties: Late Round SP Targets for 2026

Finding bargain starting pitchers in each ADP range to help win your fantasy leagues.

By Justin May · March 13, 2026 · Updated October 13, 2026

{"template": "baseball-sp-targets", "subtitle": "Finding bargain starting pitchers in each ADP range to help win your fantasy leagues.", "readTime": "15 min read", "intro": "Draft season is here! And finding bargain starting pitchers is a key to winning your leagues. Today we're going to look at some of my favorite targets in each ADP range. I'm someone who likes taking bats for the first several rounds (at least), so hitting on some late round pitcher picks is vital to that strategy. For this exercise, we'll use FantasyPros average ADP - which includes an aggregate of ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTSports, NFBC, and Fantrax. We'll ignore pitchers taken in the top 200 overall picks, and instead explore some options available later. ", "tiers": [{"id": "tier-1", "label": "ADP > 200", "players": [{"name": "Zac Gallen", "team": "ARI", "adp": "212", "writeup": "Zac Gallen and Joe Musgrove are two arms with a long history of success - both are looking to bounce back this year. It's a bit of wishful thinking at play here, but you also won't find any arms with their track record past this ADP. I did a deep dive last May on Gallen in particular. The TL;DR version is that his stuff hasn't declined - he just had lapses in command, which seems fixable for a guy with a history of solid command. It's worth noting that he did have a 3.32 ERA in 11 starts in August and September last year. In drafts I'm willing to take the guaranteed volume with an upside of return to glory. "}, {"name": "Joe Musgrove", "team": "SD", "adp": "226", "writeup": ""}, {"name": "Ryne Nelson", "team": "ARI", "adp": "258", "writeup": "Ryne Nelson is another one of just a few arms who can give you significant volume this late. He's a better target for points leagues or leagues that count QS, since he can churn through lineups with just his fastball at times. It's one of the best pitches in the game and I'm just praying that any of his secondary pitches can step up in a big way. Maybe the slider can be that pitch - it did its part with a 33% whiff rate in 2025. "}, {"name": "Logan Henderson", "team": "MIL", "adp": "271", "writeup": "Few people have been as frustrated as Logan Henderson owners, based on how the Brewers haven't given him a shot in the rotation. A flexor strain in August did contribute some, but fortunately it looks like his chance is coming in 2026. He made 5 big league starts in 2025 and was dynamite - pitching to a 1.78 ERA with a 33.3% K rate and an 8% walk rate. His fastball/changeup combo works, and he's posted stellar K/BB numbers throughout the minors. He may not have the ceiling of the Andrew Painters or Bubba Chandlers of the world - but a high floor rookie can be a helpful arm in the mid to late rounds. There's some concern about his recent elbow soreness, but at this point it's minor and he just needed a few days of rest, which isn't enough to deter me at this ADP. "}, {"name": "Joey Cantillo", "team": "CLE", "adp": "290", "writeup": "Joey Cantillo has a lethal changeup - registering an absurd 49% whiff rate on the pitch in 2025. Walks have been a killer, and it originally made it tough for him to break into the rotation. But his strong finish to 2025 was no accident - he reduced his walk rate to 5.4% in September and had his best month of the year. This was after being sent back to AAA to focus on throwing strikes. He may need his slider to step up to truly break out, but hopefully he can continue that late season momentum into 2026. "}]}, {"id": "tier-2", "label": "ADP > 300", "players": [{"name": "Andrew Painter", "team": "PHI", "adp": "305", "writeup": "Andrew Painter had an up and down 2025, but he's a top pitching prospect for a reason. His stuff is insane, led by a high velo fastball. His ceiling is higher than the Sistine Chapel if everything clicks. He could be scribbles on a page as opposed to Michelangelo in year one - ok that's enough art puns - but I'm more than fine spending pick 305 on a guy with his ceiling. As of now he should start the year in the Phillies' rotation. "}, {"name": "Mike Burrows", "team": "HOU", "adp": "324", "writeup": "As promising as the Pirates' development has been lately, I was glad to see Mike Burrows moved to Houston. They have a history of unlocking pitchers, and Burrows could be the next in line. They already seem to be making changes, as he's shown a slider with higher velocity and less vertical drop in his spring starts. Any improvement to his arsenal helps, as he was heavily reliant on his changeup last year (to be fair it is elite). He still managed an ERA under 4 and a K per inning, so we're just hoping the Astros improve him further. "}, {"name": "Will Warren", "team": "NYY", "adp": "341", "writeup": "Will Warren was a popular breakout pick early last season when he popped in spring, but it didn't quite pan out. On a positive note, he did receive 33 starts with the big club, so it's nice that they trusted him with that volume. He has K upside with his sweeper, changeup, and curveball all registering whiff rates over 30%, but he needs to be more consistent from start to start. He'll get another opportunity this year due to injuries in the rotation, so at this ADP I'm willing to bet that he makes adjustments and the quality of his stuff wins out. "}, {"name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "team": "ARI", "adp": "354", "writeup": "Few pitchers have been more polarizing than Brandon Pfaadt. A 5.25 ERA doesn't inspire much confidence, but he did add a cutter late last season that could help him generate quicker outs if he can find the right pitch mix. He's had some of the lowest walk rates in the league over the years (95th percentile last year) so he's a great target for K/BB leagues. It's possible everything clicks after a pitch mix adjustment. "}, {"name": "Robby Snelling", "team": "MIA", "adp": "364", "writeup": "It's unfortunate that the Marlins likely won't have a rotation spot for Robby Snelling to start the year. He had a huge bounceback in 2025 after being traded to the Marlins, and has reclaimed his status as a top pitching prospect. His command was on point in the minors last year, and he offers a strong fastball with multiple solid breaking pitches. He won't be an ace, but he's being underrated as a high floor prospect arm for 2026. "}]}, {"id": "tier-3", "label": "ADP > 400", "players": [{"name": "Cade Cavalli", "team": "WSH", "adp": "410", "writeup": "Cade Cavalli deserves a round of applause simply for making it back to the bigs after countless injuries. The Nats are definitely glad he's back, as he's their de facto ace this year. It sounds glum having your ace at an ADP over 400, but Cavalli has the stuff to make that seem like a bargain. In his small 48 IP sample last year, he wasn't hit hard (95th percentile barrel rate), kept the ball on the ground (55% groundball rate), and kept the walks in check (6.8%). Factor in that his whiff rates show potential for more K upside than the 18% rate he had last year, and we have a nice late target here. "}, {"name": "Grant Holmes", "team": "ATL", "adp": "425", "writeup": "It's tough to find K upside late in drafts without huge ratio risk, so Grant Holmes offers a nice median here. He wasn't as stellar last year as he was in 2024, but if he can get his control closer to 2024 levels, 2026 could be a nice bounceback. There's injury risk after he elected to rehab his elbow in lieu of surgery this offseason, but at this point in drafts injury risk is meaningless. "}, {"name": "Slade Cecconi", "team": "CLE", "adp": "441", "writeup": "Slade Cecconi is a guy who won't wow you, but he has a deep pitch mix and attacks the zone consistently. The K upside likely isn't there because of it, but he does go deep into games. He's another guy who's likely better for points leagues, but QS arms need love too. Just please lean on your secondary pitches more with two strikes\u2026 "}, {"name": "Mick Abel", "team": "MIN", "adp": "448", "writeup": "Mick Abel has been inconsistent - we saw the highs in his electric MLB debut, and also several rough starts afterwards. His command comes and goes, but his curveball is a legit MLB-quality secondary pitch (hitters had a 37.5% whiff rate and a .212 xwOBA against the pitch in 2025). He may need more out of his slider and changeup this year, but he's had a great spring. If he locks down the 5th spot in the Twins' rotation, his ADP will soar. "}, {"name": "Joe Boyle", "team": "TB", "adp": "493", "writeup": "I was bullish on Joe Boyle after he was traded to the Rays last year. They made some legit changes, like simplifying his delivery and scrapping the high variance curveball from his arsenal. He also added a splitter, which is a golden ticket for him finding success as a starter. He desperately needed a pitch that can work for him low in the zone, and with a 31% whiff rate and .189 xwOBA against, I'd say it did the job. The walk rate was still too high (12% in his MLB outings) so he might start the year in AAA. Still, the upside is there for an immediate waiver add in all leagues once he earns a rotation spot. "}]}, {"id": "tier-4", "label": "ADP > 500", "players": [{"name": "Sean Burke", "team": "CHW", "adp": "544", "writeup": "I just can't quit Sean Burke. I dubbed him as a breakout arm last season but clearly that didn't come to fruition. Inconsistency with command did him in, but he has strikeout stuff when he's on, emphasized by him averaging about a K per inning even with all of the rough outings included. He's supposedly throwing his sinker less often and getting back to his slider grip that was great for him in 2024, so we'll have to see if the execution improves. "}, {"name": "Brandon Sproat", "team": "MIL", "adp": "555", "writeup": "Brandon Sproat was a big riser on prospect lists in 2024, but followed it up with a rough 2025. After being moved to Milwaukee in the Freddy Peralta trade, he goes from one strong pitching lab to another. Can the Brewers unlock him? I like his deep pitch mix, and he's a candidate for a rotation spot early this year - this ADP could be a bargain. "}, {"name": "Christian Scott", "team": "NYM", "adp": ">600", "writeup": "Christian Scott was a top pitching prospect a couple years ago, but unfortunately missed all of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He's made some noise this spring, and his velocity has returned to pre-injury levels. He likely won't start the year in the rotation but based on the pedigree he's an immediate add if he gets a shot. "}, {"name": "Foster Griffin", "team": "WSH", "adp": ">600", "writeup": "Now back stateside after three successful years in the NPB, Foster Griffin is looking like a lock for the Nats rotation. His stuff won't blow you away, but being able to mix in 6 different pitches is a way to keep hitters guessing. His control was great in the NPB (walk rates below 6% every season) and I like him as a bargain QS arm. The Nats should let him go deep into games since they need guys to eat innings, and the deeper pitch mix might take time for hitters to figure out. "}, {"name": "Hunter Dobbins", "team": "STL", "adp": ">600", "writeup": "I was impressed with Hunter Dobbins last year despite the mediocre surface stats. When I watched his games I saw a pitcher who attacked the zone with confidence and displayed strong pitchability. There's room for growth in the strikeout department if he locates better with two strikes. He's being slow-played this spring as he recovers from a torn ACL, so he likely starts the year in AAA. With the Cardinals deploying one of the worst rotations in baseball, there's a chance he earns a rotation spot as soon as he's fully ramped up. "}]}, {"id": "tier-5", "label": "Prospects to monitor", "players": [{"name": "Trey Gibson", "team": "BAL", "adp": ">600", "writeup": "I've been a big fan of Trey Gibson ever since I saw him carve up a loaded Brooklyn Cyclones lineup last year. He has a deep arsenal and can be a workhorse type as soon as he's called up. He should be one of the first names they look to if an injury occurs. "}, {"name": "David Sandlin", "team": "CHW", "adp": ">600", "writeup": "David Sandlin and Tanner McDougal will start the year in AAA essentially competing for any rotation spot that comes available. With the White Sox lack of established rotation arms, that could mean a call up any day for either of these guys. Both have great stuff and there's a good chance both make a few starts in the majors in 2026. "}, {"name": "Tanner McDougal", "team": "CHW", "adp": ">600", "writeup": ""}, {"name": "Braden Nett", "team": "ATH", "adp": ">600", "writeup": "Braden Nett is a bit behind the other guys here since his path to a starting role is murkier - he hasn't pitched above AA yet and has to get that walk rate under 10%. Regardless, he's got an interesting, deep pitch mix that could deceive big league hitters. I'll be watching for any improved command early on, and it's possible he gets a big league opportunity this year. "}]}]}