How Do You Draft Second-Year Starting Pitchers?

Fantasy sports news, analysis, and waiver wire advice.

By Statmanjack · March 9, 2026 · Updated October 12, 2026

I want to preface this article by saying that I won’t be doing a deep dive on Chase Burns. Or Nolan McLean. Postseason heroes Cam Schlittler, Connelly Early, and Trey Yesavage aren’t in here either. If you are deep enough into your draft prep to come across this article, you’ve probably already heard plenty about all of these exciting young arms. They aren’t my targets in drafts this year. Here’s why. The market does not do a great job of projecting volume for second-year starting pitchers. That really is the puzzle underneath any analysis of this group. The skills are clear and present for so many in this class, whether it’s the 100mph heaters from Burns or the frisbee sliders from McLean. But even when passing the eye test and bringing strong peripherals to the table, there is still risk when drafting pitchers after their first season. Performance on a per-inning basis is likely not the pitfall, but volume could be. Looking into the last four seasons, I examined rookie pitchers and their year-two workloads. These results are instructive for my analysis and recommendations on which sophomores to draft, especially in leagues where you can’t just plan to replace bust SPs on waivers.

The above chart shows rookie seasons (solid lines) from the 2022, 2023, and 2024 rookie classes at SP, filtering to include only those who exceeded the 50 IP plateau. The dotted lines represent the year-two innings totals for these respective SP classes. Clearly, many starting pitchers fall out of the sample after their rookie year, either due to injuries or performance. Some do exceed their first year innings totals, as noted in the longer distribution tails. You can thank pitchers like Hunter Brown, Bryce Miller, and Paul Skenes for these jumps, among others. Running regressions on the potential predictors of year-two innings, regardless of perceived skill level, first year innings are the best predictor of year-two innings totals. So is this baked into projection models? Or does the hype around so many of these GIF-able starters send their ADPs skyrocketing? And how do you identify value in this landscape?

The above charts map innings totals from the last four seasons. On the left is historical rookie seasons for pitchers who pitched in their sophomore seasons (blue) shown against their year-two innings totals. The chart on the right shows 2025 rookie innings pitched (blue) only for pitchers who are being drafted in 2026, layered against ATC projections for these pitchers in orange. The difference between the historic year-two innings totals (orange on the left) and the projected year-two innings totals for this year’s sophomore starters (orange on the right) demonstrates that there is indeed a bit of inflated expectations amongst analysts. Part of this is natural -- it is extremely difficult to project pitcher injuries. At the same time, these projections are driving ADP. This means the market is potentially pricing in innings projections that are unrealistic. Let’s throw an example out -- Chase Burns is projected by ATC (which aggregates the top public projection systems) to reach 134 innings this season across 29 appearances. The young flamethrower pitched 43.1 innings for Cincinnati last year. Historic innings totals do not include his minor league innings (of which he had 66 across all three levels last year). But in my regressions, including minor league innings did not meaningfully predict year-two innings more than just using major league innings. So in the case of Burns (and McLean, Bubba Chandler, Trey Yesavage, and many others), projections systems are glass half full, or really glass overflowing, compared to historic year-two innings totals. Of course, highly skilled sophomores (like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Skenes last year) buck that trend. Draft Burns or McLean or any of the other low inning rookies from last season if you think they have that sort of ceiling. But just remember that history isn’t on their side. Remember Bobby Miller and Kodai Senga? I’ve kept mentioning that over the last few seasons, rookie innings have consistently been the best predictor of year-two innings. The second most predictive indicator is fastball velocity, which is generally a skill that holds year-over-year and influences all the things we care about in the fantasy game, from ERA to WHIP to Ks. If you’d focused on rookies who served up a healthy serving of innings, with fastball velocity averaging 94mph or better, as your draft targets the following season, here are some of the names you would have focused on (sorted by rookie innings).

Here, you’ll see a ton of successful big league aces. And Bobby Miller. Plus a few other year-two let downs who were bit by the injury bug (Gavin Stone, Spencer Arrighetti, Spencer Schwellenbach, Jared Jones, Grayson Rodriguez, and of course Senga). Of this list, only eight of the 17 exceeded 100 IP in year-two. From the 2024 class, this only includes Skenes and Schwellenbach (who ended the season injured and is hurt to start 2026). And this is amongst the seemingly projectable rookie innings eaters! So if you had drafted year-two starters based on this strategy, filtering for innings eaters with strong fastball velo, about half of your targets would have failed to live up to year-two volume projections. But the half who did included Spencer Strider, George Kirby, Hunter Greene, Tanner Bibbee, Hunter Brown, Bryce Miller, and of course Skenes. That’s quite the group! At what is an inherently injury-prone and volatile position to draft, it clearly is worthwhile to filter on innings and velocity. If we do that for 2025 rookies, who stands out as targets for this year?

Of these six names, only Kolek is not projected to be in his team’s 2026 starting rotation. All of them are going outside of the top 250 in drafts by Fantasy Pros ADP. The most exciting trio are those with the highest average fastball velocities (and ADPs). Jack Leiter is a former top pick and college star at Vanderbilt, with MLB bloodlines. He is a classic post-hype sleeper. After a cup of coffee in 2024, his true rookie campaign unfurled last season. And while he didn’t live up to expectations, he did complete 150 innings at around a strikeout-per-inning. That alone is worth drafting ahead of his ADP, especially in points leagues. But for someone with his pedigree, surrounded by crafty veterans like Nate Eovaldi and Jacob DeGrom, who has also reportedly adding a cutter to protect his fastball, there is clear upside. Shane Smith has gif-worthy stuff and should be the Opening Day starter for the floundering White Sox. He also shouldered a solid workload in his rookie season and will be asked to do more of the same this year. The 2025 All-Star is almost free in drafts. And even if he regresses, he carries a solid points league floor. With a true five-pitch mix and one of the league’s most successful fastballs, an upgraded offspeed offering could help him make a dent in his 4.23 xFIP. Cade Horton is the more hyped Chicago sophomore of this group, being drafted nearly 100 spots ahead of Smith by ADP. And while he does carry far more prospect pedigree and better results last season (2.67 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 23 appearances), his underlying numbers aren’t too different from Smith’s. Horton also employs a five-pitch mix and has also expressed an interest in going deep into starts and carrying an ace’s workload. Sign me up! And let’s not forget about Chad Patrick. While his rookie teammate Logan Henderson is being drafted about 50 picks earlier thus far, Patrick has a far more bankable innings floor. He also is embracing a growing trend amongst MLB starters - multiple fastballs. Patrick found success with a cutter, sinker, and traditional four-seamer last season, and all produced positive run values, using the sinker more against lefties and saving the four-seam for righties. If the Brewers can improve his changeup results or up his slider usage, he could breakout past his already solid 3.53 ERA from his rookie season.