Matthew Tkachuk points prop 0.5 at DAL
Matthew Tkachuk, LW for FLA, next plays at DAL on Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 0.5 points. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 1.0 points, give or take 1.1; our chance of the over 62%; our own line 0.5.
- Projected for 18 minutes of ice time
- Plays on the top line
- Opponent allows the 6th fewest expected goals
- Skates with linemates who create fewer chances than his usual ones
- On the first power-play unit, about 4:49 a game on the power play
- Faces Casey DeSmith (expected starter), who projects to save more goals than expected
- His club projects for 26 shots tonight, 2 fewer than usual
Our lean
Lean over at 0.5: our chance of the over 66%, the books' 64%. Model and recent form disagree.
How he has done against 0.5
- Last 5: over in 5 of 5, average 1.4
- Last 10: over in 9 of 10, average 1.4
- Last 20: over in 18 of 20, average 1.4
- This season: over in 18 of 21, average 1.4
Defence vs position
DAL vs LW: tough, 1.3 points allowed a game, 24 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 100%, average 1.3 in 7 games
- Home: over 86%, average 1.1 in 7 games
- Away: over 86%, average 1.5 in 14 games
- Away (next game): over 86%, average 1.5 in 14 games
- Back-to-back: over 67%, average 2 in 3 games
- Rested: over 94%, average 1.4 in 17 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | at STL | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-12 | vs DET | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-10 | at CBJ | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-08 | at BOS | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-07 | at WSH | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | vs CHI | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | vs DET | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | vs WPG | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | at WPG | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | at CHI | 1 | over |
More Matthew Tkachuk props
Matthew Tkachuk player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Matthew Tkachuk's points line at DAL?
The books' line is 0.5 points, from 4 books. We project 1.0 and give the over 62%.
How often has Matthew Tkachuk gone over 0.5 points?
Over in 9 of 10 of his last 10 games and 18 of 21 this season, averaging 1.4 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Matthew Tkachuk points?
Lean, over 0.5: our chance 66% against the books' 64%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is DAL a good matchup for Matthew Tkachuk?
Tough: DAL allow 1.3 points a game to LW, 24 of 32 (1 allows the most).
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