Matthew Tkachuk shots on goal prop 2.5 at DAL
Matthew Tkachuk, LW for FLA, next plays at DAL on Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 2.5 shots. 3 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 2.4 shots, give or take 1.7; our chance of the over 43%; our own line 2.5.
- Projected for 18 minutes of ice time
- Plays on the top line
- Opponent allows the 2nd fewest shots on goal
- On the first power-play unit, about 4:49 a game on the power play
- Faces Casey DeSmith (expected starter), who projects to save more goals than expected
- His club projects for 26 shots tonight, 2 fewer than usual
- Second night of a back-to-back for his club
Our lean
No lean at 2.5: our chance of the over 43%, the books' 41%. Model and recent form both lean over.
How he has done against 2.5
- Last 5: over in 3 of 5, average 2.2
- Last 10: over in 5 of 10, average 2.1
- Last 20: over in 7 of 20, average 2.0
- This season: over in 7 of 21, average 2.0
Defence vs position
DAL vs LW: tough, 3.1 shots allowed a game, 31 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 57%, average 2.1 in 7 games
- Home: over 43%, average 2.1 in 7 games
- Away: over 29%, average 2 in 14 games
- Away (next game): over 29%, average 2 in 14 games
- Back-to-back: over 33%, average 2.3 in 3 games
- Rested: over 35%, average 2 in 17 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | shots | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | at STL | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-12 | vs DET | 0 | under |
| 2026-11-10 | at CBJ | 0 | under |
| 2026-11-08 | at BOS | 5 | over |
| 2026-11-07 | at WSH | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | vs CHI | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | vs DET | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-30 | vs WPG | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | at WPG | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | at CHI | 3 | over |
More Matthew Tkachuk props
Matthew Tkachuk player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Matthew Tkachuk's shots on goal line at DAL?
The books' line is 2.5 shots, from 3 books. We project 2.4 and give the over 43%.
How often has Matthew Tkachuk gone over 2.5 shots?
Over in 5 of 10 of his last 10 games and 7 of 21 this season, averaging 2.1 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Matthew Tkachuk shots on goal?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 41% for the over.
Is DAL a good matchup for Matthew Tkachuk?
Tough: DAL allow 3.1 shots a game to LW, 31 of 32 (1 allows the most).
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