Thomas Harley points prop 0.5 vs FLA
Thomas Harley, D for DAL, next plays vs FLA on Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 0.5 points. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 0.6 points, give or take 0.8; our chance of the over 45%; our own line 0.5.
- Projected for 25.1 minutes of ice time
- Top defence pair
- Opponent is close to the league average in expected goals allowed
- Takes more dangerous shots than most at his position
- On the first power-play unit, about 2:30 a game on the power play
- Faces Akira Schmid (expected starter), who projects close to expected
- His club projects for 26 shots tonight, about its usual
Our lean
Strong lean under at 0.5: our chance of the under 48%, the books' 43%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 0.5
- Last 5: over in 3 of 5, average 1.4
- Last 10: over in 5 of 10, average 0.9
- Last 20: over in 9 of 20, average 0.7
- This season: over in 9 of 19, average 0.7
Defence vs position
FLA vs D: tough, 1.8 points allowed a game, 29 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 60%, average 1.4 in 5 games
- Home: over 42%, average 0.7 in 12 games
- Away: over 57%, average 0.7 in 7 games
- Home (next game): over 42%, average 0.7 in 12 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 0.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 50%, average 0.8 in 16 games
- vs FLA: over 50%, average 0.5 in 2 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | vs BUF | 0 | under |
| 2026-11-12 | vs WPG | 2 | over |
| 2026-11-07 | vs SJ | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-05 | at CBJ | 0 | under |
| 2026-11-03 | at WSH | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-31 | vs CBJ | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-29 | vs MTL | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | vs NJ | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | vs NYI | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-22 | vs WPG | 0 | under |
More Thomas Harley props
Thomas Harley player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Thomas Harley's points line vs FLA?
The books' line is 0.5 points, from 4 books. We project 0.6 and give the over 45%.
How often has Thomas Harley gone over 0.5 points?
Over in 5 of 10 of his last 10 games and 9 of 19 this season, averaging 0.9 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Thomas Harley points?
Strong lean, under 0.5: our chance 48% against the books' 43%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is FLA a good matchup for Thomas Harley?
Tough: FLA allow 1.8 points a game to D, 29 of 32 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.