Thomas Harley shots on goal prop 2.5 vs FLA
Thomas Harley, D for DAL, next plays vs FLA on Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 2.5 shots. 3 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 1.9 shots, give or take 1.4; our chance of the over 30%; our own line 1.5.
- Projected for 25.1 minutes of ice time
- Top defence pair
- Opponent allows the 9th fewest shots on goal
- On the first power-play unit, about 2:30 a game on the power play
- Faces Akira Schmid (expected starter), who projects close to expected
- His club projects for 26 shots tonight, about its usual
- Second night of a back-to-back for his club
Our lean
Strong lean under at 2.5: our chance of the under 63%, the books' 56%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 2.5
- Last 5: over in 1 of 5, average 1.8
- Last 10: over in 2 of 10, average 1.8
- Last 20: over in 6 of 20, average 1.9
- This season: over in 5 of 19, average 1.8
Defence vs position
FLA vs D: neutral, 7.7 shots allowed a game, 15 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 20%, average 1.8 in 5 games
- Home: over 17%, average 1.3 in 12 games
- Away: over 43%, average 2.6 in 7 games
- Home (next game): over 17%, average 1.3 in 12 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 2.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 25%, average 1.8 in 16 games
- vs FLA: over 0%, average 1.5 in 2 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | shots | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | vs BUF | 0 | under |
| 2026-11-12 | vs WPG | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-07 | vs SJ | 2 | under |
| 2026-11-05 | at CBJ | 5 | over |
| 2026-11-03 | at WSH | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-31 | vs CBJ | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-29 | vs MTL | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | vs NJ | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | vs NYI | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-22 | vs WPG | 2 | under |
More Thomas Harley props
Thomas Harley player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Thomas Harley's shots on goal line vs FLA?
The books' line is 2.5 shots, from 3 books. We project 1.9 and give the over 30%.
How often has Thomas Harley gone over 2.5 shots?
Over in 2 of 10 of his last 10 games and 5 of 19 this season, averaging 1.8 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Thomas Harley shots on goal?
Strong lean, under 2.5: our chance 63% against the books' 56%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is FLA a good matchup for Thomas Harley?
Neutral: FLA allow 7.7 shots a game to D, 15 of 32 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.