Tomas Hertl points prop 0.5 vs VAN
Tomas Hertl, C for VGK, next plays vs VAN on Sun, Nov 15, 9:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 0.5 points. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 0.7 points, give or take 0.8; our chance of the over 47%; our own line 0.5.
- Projected for 15.5 minutes of ice time
- Plays on the third line
- Opponent allows the 2nd most expected goals
- Skates with linemates who create fewer chances than his usual ones
- Takes more dangerous shots than most at his position
- On the first power-play unit, about 3:09 a game on the power play
- Faces Leevi Meriläinen (expected starter), who projects to allow more goals than expected
Our lean
Lean under at 0.5: our chance of the under 42%, the books' 39%. Model and recent form disagree.
How he has done against 0.5
- Last 5: over in 5 of 5, average 1.4
- Last 10: over in 7 of 10, average 0.9
- Last 20: over in 11 of 20, average 0.8
- This season: over in 11 of 21, average 0.8
Defence vs position
VAN vs C: favourable, 4.1 points allowed a game, 1 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 100%, average 1.3 in 6 games
- Home: over 27%, average 0.3 in 11 games
- Away: over 80%, average 1.3 in 10 games
- Home (next game): over 27%, average 0.3 in 11 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 1.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 50%, average 0.7 in 18 games
- vs VAN: over 25%, average 0.3 in 4 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | vs NSH | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-11 | vs UTA | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-08 | at BUF | 2 | over |
| 2026-11-05 | at DET | 1 | over |
| 2026-11-03 | at PIT | 2 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | at BOS | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | vs NJ | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | vs OTT | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-24 | at CBJ | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-22 | at STL | 0 | under |
More Tomas Hertl props
Tomas Hertl player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Tomas Hertl's points line vs VAN?
The books' line is 0.5 points, from 4 books. We project 0.7 and give the over 47%.
How often has Tomas Hertl gone over 0.5 points?
Over in 7 of 10 of his last 10 games and 11 of 21 this season, averaging 0.9 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Tomas Hertl points?
Lean, under 0.5: our chance 42% against the books' 39%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is VAN a good matchup for Tomas Hertl?
Favourable: VAN allow 4.1 points a game to C, 1 of 32 (1 allows the most).
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