Tomas Hertl shots on goal prop 2.5 vs VAN
Tomas Hertl, C for VGK, next plays vs VAN on Sun, Nov 15, 9:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 2.5 shots. 3 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 2.2 shots, give or take 1.6; our chance of the over 37%; our own line 1.5.
- Projected for 15.5 minutes of ice time
- Plays on the third line
- Opponent allows the 8th most shots on goal
- On the first power-play unit, about 3:09 a game on the power play
- Faces Leevi Meriläinen (expected starter), who projects to allow more goals than expected
- His club projects for 30 shots tonight, about its usual
- Shooting more than usual over the last two weeks
Our lean
Lean under at 2.5: our chance of the under 59%, the books' 57%. Our model leans under.
How he has done against 2.5
- Last 5: over in 3 of 5, average 2.6
- Last 10: over in 4 of 10, average 2.4
- Last 20: over in 9 of 20, average 2.4
- This season: over in 10 of 21, average 2.5
Defence vs position
VAN vs C: neutral, 9.7 shots allowed a game, 12 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 67%, average 2.8 in 6 games
- Home: over 55%, average 2.6 in 11 games
- Away: over 40%, average 2.3 in 10 games
- Home (next game): over 55%, average 2.6 in 11 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 2.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 44%, average 2.4 in 18 games
- vs VAN: over 25%, average 1.5 in 4 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | shots | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | vs NSH | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-11 | vs UTA | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-08 | at BUF | 4 | over |
| 2026-11-05 | at DET | 2 | under |
| 2026-11-03 | at PIT | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | at BOS | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | vs NJ | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | vs OTT | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-24 | at CBJ | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-22 | at STL | 2 | under |
More Tomas Hertl props
Tomas Hertl player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Tomas Hertl's shots on goal line vs VAN?
The books' line is 2.5 shots, from 3 books. We project 2.2 and give the over 37%.
How often has Tomas Hertl gone over 2.5 shots?
Over in 4 of 10 of his last 10 games and 10 of 21 this season, averaging 2.4 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Tomas Hertl shots on goal?
Lean, under 2.5: our chance 59% against the books' 57%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is VAN a good matchup for Tomas Hertl?
Neutral: VAN allow 9.7 shots a game to C, 12 of 32 (1 allows the most).
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