Nickeil Alexander-Walker points prop 22.5 at MIL
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, G for ATL, next plays at MIL on Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 22.5 points. 3 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 20.4 points, give or take 7.7; our chance of the over 36%; our own line 19.5.
- 31.8 minutes projected, starting
- team scoring +4% per possession
- usage up: Mouhamed Gueye, Keshon Gilbert out (shots +1%, assists +4%)
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +4%
- lineup not confirmed
Our lean
No lean at 22.5: our chance of the under 55%, the books' 53%. Our model leans under.
How he has done against 22.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 22
- Last 10: over in 5 of 10, average 21.6
- Last 20: over in 10 of 20, average 22.8
- This season: over in 6 of 13, average 21.5
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 120.2 points allowed a game, 4 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 50%, average 24 in 6 games
- Home: over 50%, average 22.3 in 6 games
- Away: over 43%, average 20.7 in 7 games
- Away (next game): over 43%, average 20.7 in 7 games
- Back-to-back: over 33%, average 21 in 3 games
- Rested: over 44%, average 20.6 in 9 games
- vs MIL: over 67%, average 25 in 3 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | at CHI | 16 | under |
| 2026-11-09 | vs LAL | 20 | under |
| 2026-11-07 | vs BKN | 20 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | vs WAS | 28 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at WAS | 26 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | at IND | 34 | over |
| 2026-10-31 | at NOP | 12 | under |
| 2026-10-29 | vs CLE | 25 | over |
| 2026-10-28 | vs MIA | 23 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | at HOU | 12 | under |
More Nickeil Alexander-Walker props
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker rebounds (our line 3.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists (our line 3.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker threes made (our line 3.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker pts + reb + ast (our line 26.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker pts + reb (our line 22.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker pts + ast (our line 23.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker reb + ast (our line 6.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals (our line 1.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker blocks (our line 0.5)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker turnovers (our line 1.5)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Nickeil Alexander-Walker's points line at MIL?
The books' line is 22.5 points, from 3 books. We project 20.4 and give the over 36%.
How often has Nickeil Alexander-Walker gone over 22.5 points?
Over in 5 of 10 of his last 10 games and 6 of 13 this season, averaging 21.6 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Nickeil Alexander-Walker points?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 47% for the over.
Is MIL a good matchup for Nickeil Alexander-Walker?
Favourable: MIL allow 120.2 points a game to all players, 4 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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