Connor McDavid points prop 1.5 at PHI
Connor McDavid, C for EDM, next plays at PHI on Sun, Nov 15, 7:30 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 1.5 points. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 1.5 points, give or take 1.3; our chance of the over 44%; our own line 1.5.
- Projected for 23.6 minutes of ice time
- Plays on the top line
- Opponent allows the 10th most expected goals
- Skates with linemates who create fewer chances than his usual ones
- Takes more dangerous shots than most at his position
- On the first power-play unit, about 3:32 a game on the power play
- Faces Dan Vladar (expected starter), who projects close to expected
Our lean
Lean under at 1.5: our chance of the under 54%, the books' 51%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 1.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 2
- Last 10: over in 4 of 10, average 1.7
- Last 20: over in 12 of 20, average 2.4
- This season: over in 13 of 21, average 2.4
Defence vs position
PHI vs C: neutral, 3 points allowed a game, 21 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 43%, average 1.9 in 7 games
- Home: over 67%, average 2.3 in 12 games
- Away: over 56%, average 2.6 in 9 games
- Away (next game): over 56%, average 2.6 in 9 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 2 in 1 game
- Rested: over 58%, average 2.4 in 19 games
- vs PHI: over 33%, average 1.3 in 3 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | at TOR | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-11 | vs PHI | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-09 | vs NYR | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-07 | vs VAN | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-05 | vs ANA | 4 | over |
| 2026-11-03 | at NJ | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-01 | at NYR | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-31 | at NYI | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs CGY | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | vs DET | 1 | under |
More Connor McDavid props
Connor McDavid player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Connor McDavid's points line at PHI?
The books' line is 1.5 points, from 4 books. We project 1.5 and give the over 44%.
How often has Connor McDavid gone over 1.5 points?
Over in 4 of 10 of his last 10 games and 13 of 21 this season, averaging 1.7 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Connor McDavid points?
Lean, under 1.5: our chance 54% against the books' 51%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is PHI a good matchup for Connor McDavid?
Neutral: PHI allow 3 points a game to C, 21 of 32 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.