Connor McDavid shots on goal prop 2.5 at PHI
Connor McDavid, C for EDM, next plays at PHI on Sun, Nov 15, 7:30 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 2.5 shots. 3 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 3.5 shots, give or take 2.0; our chance of the over 66%; our own line 3.5.
- Projected for 23.6 minutes of ice time
- Plays on the top line
- Opponent allows the 11th fewest shots on goal
- On the first power-play unit, about 3:32 a game on the power play
- Faces Dan Vladar (expected starter), who projects close to expected
- His club projects for 27 shots tonight, about its usual
- Second night of a back-to-back for his club
Our lean
Strong lean over at 2.5: our chance of the over 62%, the books' 58%. Model and recent form both lean over.
How he has done against 2.5
- Last 5: over in 4 of 5, average 3
- Last 10: over in 7 of 10, average 3
- Last 20: over in 13 of 20, average 2.9
- This season: over in 13 of 21, average 2.8
Defence vs position
PHI vs C: neutral, 9.1 shots allowed a game, 20 of 32.
Splits
- November: over 71%, average 3.1 in 7 games
- Home: over 67%, average 2.8 in 12 games
- Away: over 56%, average 2.8 in 9 games
- Away (next game): over 56%, average 2.8 in 9 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 6 in 1 game
- Rested: over 63%, average 2.7 in 19 games
- vs PHI: over 33%, average 3 in 3 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | shots | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | at TOR | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-11 | vs PHI | 2 | under |
| 2026-11-09 | vs NYR | 4 | over |
| 2026-11-07 | vs VAN | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-05 | vs ANA | 3 | over |
| 2026-11-03 | at NJ | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-01 | at NYR | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-31 | at NYI | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-28 | vs CGY | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | vs DET | 2 | under |
More Connor McDavid props
Connor McDavid player page · Every NHL player prop today
Quick answers
What is Connor McDavid's shots on goal line at PHI?
The books' line is 2.5 shots, from 3 books. We project 3.5 and give the over 66%.
How often has Connor McDavid gone over 2.5 shots?
Over in 7 of 10 of his last 10 games and 13 of 21 this season, averaging 3 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Connor McDavid shots on goal?
Strong lean, over 2.5: our chance 62% against the books' 58%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is PHI a good matchup for Connor McDavid?
Neutral: PHI allow 9.1 shots a game to C, 20 of 32 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.