Damian Lillard assists prop 4.5 vs OKC
Damian Lillard, G for POR, next plays vs OKC on Tue, Nov 10, 11:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 4.5 assists. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 4.5 assists, give or take 2.3; our chance of the over 45%; our own line 4.5.
- 29.3 minutes projected, starting
- team scoring -5% per possession
- usage up: Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe out (shots +3%, assists +6%)
- small sample, leaning on priors
Our lean
No lean at 4.5: our chance of the under 57%, the books' 57%. Our model leans over.
How he has done against 4.5
- Last 5: over in 3 of 5, average 5.2
- Last 10: over in 4 of 9, average 4.4
- Last 20: over in 4 of 9, average 4.4
- This season: over in 4 of 9, average 4.4
Defence vs position
OKC vs all players: tough, 24.4 assists allowed a game, 24 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 75%, average 5.5 in 4 games
- Home: over 67%, average 5 in 3 games
- Away: over 33%, average 4.2 in 6 games
- Home (next game): over 67%, average 5 in 3 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 7 in 1 game
- Rested: over 29%, average 3.9 in 7 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | assists | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | vs SAS | 7 | over |
| 2026-11-06 | at LAL | 4 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | at PHX | 5 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | at DEN | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-31 | at UTA | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-29 | vs MEM | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | at LAL | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-23 | at SAC | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs PHX | 6 | over |
More Damian Lillard props
- Damian Lillard points (our line 18.5)
- Damian Lillard rebounds (our line 3.5)
- Damian Lillard threes made (our line 2.5)
- Damian Lillard pts + reb + ast (our line 26.5)
- Damian Lillard pts + reb (our line 21.5)
- Damian Lillard pts + ast (our line 22.5)
- Damian Lillard reb + ast (our line 7.5)
- Damian Lillard steals (our line 0.5)
- Damian Lillard blocks (our line 0.5)
- Damian Lillard turnovers (our line 2.5)
Damian Lillard player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Damian Lillard's assists line vs OKC?
The books' line is 4.5 assists, from 5 books. We project 4.5 and give the over 45%.
How often has Damian Lillard gone over 4.5 assists?
Over in 4 of 9 of his last 10 games and 4 of 9 this season, averaging 4.4 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Damian Lillard assists?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 43% for the over.
Is OKC a good matchup for Damian Lillard?
Tough: OKC allow 24.4 assists a game to all players, 24 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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