Obi Toppin points prop 11.5 vs WAS
Obi Toppin, F for IND, next plays vs WAS on Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 11.5 points. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 10.9 points, give or take 5.6; our chance of the over 40%; our own line 10.5.
- 18.1 minutes projected, off the bench
- usage up: Tyrese Haliburton, Ben Sheppard out (shots +3%, assists +7%)
- small sample, leaning on priors
- may not play
Our lean
No lean at 11.5: our chance of the under 53%, the books' 53%. Model and recent form disagree.
How he has done against 11.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 11.6
- Last 10: over in 6 of 10, average 13.5
- Last 20: over in 12 of 20, average 13.9
- This season: over in 5 of 8, average 13.4
Defence vs position
WAS vs all players: neutral, 113.4 points allowed a game, 15 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 0%, average 10.3 in 3 games
- Home: over 67%, average 12 in 3 games
- Away: over 60%, average 14.2 in 5 games
- Home (next game): over 67%, average 12 in 3 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 14 in 1 game
- Rested: over 50%, average 12.2 in 6 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at DAL | 10 | under |
| 2026-11-07 | vs DEN | 10 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | at MEM | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs PHI | 13 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | at MIL | 14 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | at BKN | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs DAL | 13 | over |
| 2026-10-21 | at NOP | 20 | over |
| 2026-04-12 | vs DET | 21 | over |
| 2026-04-10 | vs PHI | 7 | under |
More Obi Toppin props
- Obi Toppin rebounds (our line 4.5)
- Obi Toppin assists (our line 1.5)
- Obi Toppin threes made (our line 1.5)
- Obi Toppin pts + reb + ast (our line 16.5)
- Obi Toppin pts + reb (our line 14.5)
- Obi Toppin pts + ast (our line 12.5)
- Obi Toppin reb + ast (our line 6.5)
- Obi Toppin steals (our line 0.5)
- Obi Toppin blocks (our line 0.5)
- Obi Toppin turnovers (our line 0.5)
Obi Toppin player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Obi Toppin's points line vs WAS?
The books' line is 11.5 points, from 5 books. We project 10.9 and give the over 40%.
How often has Obi Toppin gone over 11.5 points?
Over in 6 of 10 of his last 10 games and 5 of 8 this season, averaging 13.5 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Obi Toppin points?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 47% for the over.
Is WAS a good matchup for Obi Toppin?
Neutral: WAS allow 113.4 points a game to all players, 15 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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