Tyler Herro points prop 21.5 vs ATL
Tyler Herro, G for MIL, next plays vs ATL on Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 21.5 points. 3 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 21.1 points, give or take 7.6; our chance of the over 46%; our own line 20.5.
- 31.2 minutes projected, starting
- lineup not confirmed
Our lean
No lean at 21.5: our chance of the over 48%, the books' 47%. Our model leans under.
How he has done against 21.5
- Last 5: over in 3 of 5, average 21.2
- Last 10: over in 5 of 10, average 20.1
- Last 20: over in 9 of 20, average 20.1
- This season: over in 7 of 12, average 21.6
Defence vs position
ATL vs all players: favourable, 116.8 points allowed a game, 8 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 50%, average 21.2 in 6 games
- Home: over 71%, average 22.6 in 7 games
- Away: over 40%, average 20.2 in 5 games
- Home (next game): over 71%, average 22.6 in 7 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 20 in 2 games
- Rested: over 56%, average 21.7 in 9 games
- vs ATL: over 50%, average 14.5 in 2 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | at ORL | 18 | under |
| 2026-11-11 | vs LAL | 27 | over |
| 2026-11-08 | vs BOS | 13 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | vs TOR | 23 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at BOS | 25 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | at MIN | 21 | under |
| 2026-10-31 | vs CLE | 15 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs HOU | 23 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | vs IND | 23 | over |
| 2026-10-24 | at PHI | 13 | under |
More Tyler Herro props
- Tyler Herro rebounds (our line 4.5)
- Tyler Herro assists (our line 4.5)
- Tyler Herro threes made (our line 2.5)
- Tyler Herro pts + reb + ast (our line 29.5)
- Tyler Herro pts + reb (our line 25.5)
- Tyler Herro pts + ast (our line 25.5)
- Tyler Herro reb + ast (our line 8.5)
- Tyler Herro steals (our line 0.5)
- Tyler Herro blocks (our line 0.5)
- Tyler Herro turnovers (our line 1.5)
Tyler Herro player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Tyler Herro's points line vs ATL?
The books' line is 21.5 points, from 3 books. We project 21.1 and give the over 46%.
How often has Tyler Herro gone over 21.5 points?
Over in 5 of 10 of his last 10 games and 7 of 12 this season, averaging 20.1 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Tyler Herro points?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 47% for the over.
Is ATL a good matchup for Tyler Herro?
Favourable: ATL allow 116.8 points a game to all players, 8 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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