Jalen Johnson points prop 21.5 at MIL
Jalen Johnson, F for ATL, next plays at MIL on Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 21.5 points. 3 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 22.2 points, give or take 7.7; our chance of the over 51%; our own line 21.5.
- 34.1 minutes projected, starting
- team scoring +4% per possession
- usage up: Mouhamed Gueye, Keshon Gilbert out (shots +0%, assists +3%)
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +4%
- lineup not confirmed
Our lean
No lean at 21.5: our chance of the under 51%, the books' 50%. Recent form leans under.
How he has done against 21.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 20.4
- Last 10: over in 3 of 10, average 20
- Last 20: over in 6 of 20, average 20.1
- This season: over in 3 of 10, average 20
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 120.2 points allowed a game, 4 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 67%, average 24 in 3 games
- Home: over 40%, average 20 in 5 games
- Away: over 20%, average 20 in 5 games
- Away (next game): over 20%, average 20 in 5 games
- Back-to-back: over 67%, average 24.3 in 3 games
- Rested: over 17%, average 17.8 in 6 games
- vs MIL: over 67%, average 23.7 in 3 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | at CHI | 27 | over |
| 2026-11-09 | vs LAL | 15 | under |
| 2026-11-07 | vs BKN | 30 | over |
| 2026-10-31 | at NOP | 13 | under |
| 2026-10-29 | vs CLE | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs MIA | 12 | under |
| 2026-10-26 | at HOU | 21 | under |
| 2026-10-24 | vs HOU | 26 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | at CHA | 19 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | at ORL | 20 | under |
More Jalen Johnson props
- Jalen Johnson rebounds (our line 9.5)
- Jalen Johnson assists (our line 8.5)
- Jalen Johnson threes made (our line 1.5)
- Jalen Johnson pts + reb + ast (our line 39.5)
- Jalen Johnson pts + reb (our line 31.5)
- Jalen Johnson pts + ast (our line 30.5)
- Jalen Johnson reb + ast (our line 17.5)
- Jalen Johnson steals (our line 0.5)
- Jalen Johnson blocks (our line 0.5)
- Jalen Johnson turnovers (our line 3.5)
Jalen Johnson player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Jalen Johnson's points line at MIL?
The books' line is 21.5 points, from 3 books. We project 22.2 and give the over 51%.
How often has Jalen Johnson gone over 21.5 points?
Over in 3 of 10 of his last 10 games and 3 of 10 this season, averaging 20 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Jalen Johnson points?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 50% for the over.
Is MIL a good matchup for Jalen Johnson?
Favourable: MIL allow 120.2 points a game to all players, 4 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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