Pelle Larsson points prop 12.5 at UTA
Pelle Larsson, G for MIA, next plays at UTA on Tue, Nov 10, 9:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 12.5 points. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 12.8 points, give or take 6.0; our chance of the over 47%; our own line 12.5.
- 29.2 minutes projected, off the bench
- waiting on Giannis Antetokounmpo's status
- team scoring +2% per possession
- UTA scorekeeper: assists +5%
Our lean
No lean at 12.5: our chance of the under 51%, the books' 50%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 12.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 11.6
- Last 10: over in 4 of 10, average 11.1
- Last 20: over in 10 of 20, average 12.6
- This season: over in 4 of 10, average 11.1
Defence vs position
UTA vs all players: favourable, 117.9 points allowed a game, 7 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 25%, average 10 in 4 games
- Home: over 25%, average 9.8 in 4 games
- Away: over 50%, average 12 in 6 games
- Away (next game): over 50%, average 12 in 6 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 14 in 2 games
- Rested: over 29%, average 11.6 in 7 games
- vs UTA: over 100%, average 20 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | at SAC | 11 | under |
| 2026-11-05 | at GSW | 13 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at LAC | 7 | under |
| 2026-11-02 | at LAL | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-30 | vs IND | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-28 | at ATL | 17 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | vs DAL | 12 | under |
| 2026-10-24 | at CHA | 15 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs DET | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs MIN | 2 | under |
More Pelle Larsson props
- Pelle Larsson rebounds (our line 3.5)
- Pelle Larsson assists (our line 3.5)
- Pelle Larsson threes made (our line 0.5)
- Pelle Larsson pts + reb + ast (our line 19.5)
- Pelle Larsson pts + reb (our line 15.5)
- Pelle Larsson pts + ast (our line 16.5)
- Pelle Larsson reb + ast (our line 7.5)
- Pelle Larsson steals (our line 0.5)
- Pelle Larsson blocks (our line 0.5)
- Pelle Larsson turnovers (our line 1.5)
Pelle Larsson player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Pelle Larsson's points line at UTA?
The books' line is 12.5 points, from 4 books. We project 12.8 and give the over 47%.
How often has Pelle Larsson gone over 12.5 points?
Over in 4 of 10 of his last 10 games and 4 of 10 this season, averaging 11.1 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Pelle Larsson points?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 50% for the over.
Is UTA a good matchup for Pelle Larsson?
Favourable: UTA allow 117.9 points a game to all players, 7 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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