Fred VanVleet points prop 11.5 vs GSW
Fred VanVleet, G for HOU, next plays vs GSW on Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 11.5 points. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 12.7 points, give or take 6.2; our chance of the over 54%; our own line 12.5.
- 27.9 minutes projected, starting
- small sample, leaning on priors
Our lean
Lean over at 11.5: our chance of the over 52%, the books' 48%. Model and recent form both lean over.
How he has done against 11.5
- Last 5: over in 4 of 5, average 14
- Last 10: over in 6 of 9, average 13.2
- Last 20: over in 6 of 9, average 13.2
- This season: over in 6 of 9, average 13.2
Defence vs position
GSW vs all players: neutral, 111.2 points allowed a game, 19 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 75%, average 13.5 in 4 games
- Home: over 40%, average 9.8 in 5 games
- Away: over 100%, average 17.5 in 4 games
- Home (next game): over 40%, average 9.8 in 5 games
- Rested: over 75%, average 14.1 in 8 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | vs DEN | 12 | over |
| 2026-11-07 | at PHX | 16 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | vs MIN | 18 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | vs BOS | 8 | under |
| 2026-10-30 | at DAL | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-28 | at MIL | 24 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | vs ATL | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-23 | at SAS | 14 | over |
| 2026-10-21 | vs DAL | 6 | under |
More Fred VanVleet props
- Fred VanVleet rebounds (our line 2.5)
- Fred VanVleet assists (our line 4.5)
- Fred VanVleet threes made (our line 2.5)
- Fred VanVleet pts + reb + ast (our line 20.5)
- Fred VanVleet pts + reb (our line 15.5)
- Fred VanVleet pts + ast (our line 17.5)
- Fred VanVleet reb + ast (our line 8.5)
- Fred VanVleet steals (our line 0.5)
- Fred VanVleet blocks (our line 0.5)
- Fred VanVleet turnovers (our line 1.5)
Fred VanVleet player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Fred VanVleet's points line vs GSW?
The books' line is 11.5 points, from 5 books. We project 12.7 and give the over 54%.
How often has Fred VanVleet gone over 11.5 points?
Over in 6 of 9 of his last 10 games and 6 of 9 this season, averaging 13.2 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Fred VanVleet points?
Lean, over 11.5: our chance 52% against the books' 48%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is GSW a good matchup for Fred VanVleet?
Neutral: GSW allow 111.2 points a game to all players, 19 of 30 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.