Keegan Murray points prop 9.5 vs ORL
Keegan Murray, F for SAC, next plays vs ORL on Tue, Nov 10, 10:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 9.5 points. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 11.6 points, give or take 5.9; our chance of the over 61%; our own line 11.5.
- 26.2 minutes projected, off the bench
- listed day-to-day
- waiting on Domantas Sabonis's status
- small sample, leaning on priors
- lineup not confirmed
- may not play
Our lean
Lean over at 9.5: our chance of the over 50%, the books' 47%. Model and recent form both lean over.
How he has done against 9.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 6.6
- Last 10: over in 7 of 10, average 11.4
- Last 20: over in 14 of 20, average 12
- This season: over in 2 of 3, average 8
Defence vs position
ORL vs all players: favourable, 116.2 points allowed a game, 9 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 100%, average 17.1 in 7 games
- Home: over 91%, average 14.9 in 11 games
- Away: over 64%, average 12.4 in 14 games
- Home (next game): over 91%, average 14.9 in 11 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 18.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 77%, average 13.6 in 22 games
- vs ORL: over 100%, average 15 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | vs MIA | 10 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs POR | 12 | over |
| 2026-10-21 | at LAC | 2 | under |
| 2026-02-25 | at HOU | 3 | under |
| 2026-02-23 | at MEM | 6 | under |
| 2026-02-21 | at SAS | 20 | over |
| 2026-02-19 | vs ORL | 15 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIL | 12 | over |
| 2026-01-02 | at PHX | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-30 | at LAC | 11 | over |
More Keegan Murray props
- Keegan Murray rebounds (our line 3.5)
- Keegan Murray assists (our line 1.5)
- Keegan Murray threes made (our line 1.5)
- Keegan Murray pts + reb + ast (our line 16.5)
- Keegan Murray pts + reb (our line 15.5)
- Keegan Murray pts + ast (our line 12.5)
- Keegan Murray reb + ast (our line 5.5)
- Keegan Murray steals (our line 0.5)
- Keegan Murray blocks (our line 0.5)
- Keegan Murray turnovers (our line 0.5)
Keegan Murray player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Keegan Murray's points line vs ORL?
The books' line is 9.5 points, from 5 books. We project 11.6 and give the over 61%.
How often has Keegan Murray gone over 9.5 points?
Over in 7 of 10 of his last 10 games and 2 of 3 this season, averaging 11.4 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Keegan Murray points?
Lean, over 9.5: our chance 50% against the books' 47%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is ORL a good matchup for Keegan Murray?
Favourable: ORL allow 116.2 points a game to all players, 9 of 30 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.