Aaron Nesmith points prop 13.5 vs WAS
Aaron Nesmith, G for IND, next plays vs WAS on Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 13.5 points. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 11.4 points, give or take 5.8; our chance of the over 34%; our own line 10.5.
- 24 minutes projected, starting
- usage up: Tyrese Haliburton, Ben Sheppard out (shots +3%, assists +7%)
Our lean
Strong lean under at 13.5: our chance of the under 58%, the books' 53%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 13.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 12.4
- Last 10: over in 4 of 10, average 14.1
- Last 20: over in 10 of 20, average 14.8
- This season: over in 3 of 9, average 12.8
Defence vs position
WAS vs all players: neutral, 113.4 points allowed a game, 15 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 50%, average 13.3 in 4 games
- Home: over 25%, average 11.5 in 4 games
- Away: over 40%, average 13.8 in 5 games
- Home (next game): over 25%, average 11.5 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 0%, average 13 in 1 game
- Rested: over 38%, average 12.8 in 8 games
- vs WAS: over 0%, average 3 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at DAL | 18 | over |
| 2026-11-07 | vs DEN | 8 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | at MEM | 16 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs BKN | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-30 | at MIA | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs PHI | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | at MIL | 13 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | at BKN | 13 | under |
| 2026-10-23 | vs DAL | 9 | under |
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAC | 26 | over |
More Aaron Nesmith props
- Aaron Nesmith rebounds (our line 2.5)
- Aaron Nesmith assists (our line 1.5)
- Aaron Nesmith threes made (our line 1.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + reb (our line 13.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + ast (our line 12.5)
- Aaron Nesmith reb + ast (our line 4.5)
- Aaron Nesmith steals (our line 0.5)
- Aaron Nesmith blocks (our line 0.5)
- Aaron Nesmith turnovers (our line 1.5)
Aaron Nesmith player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Aaron Nesmith's points line vs WAS?
The books' line is 13.5 points, from 5 books. We project 11.4 and give the over 34%.
How often has Aaron Nesmith gone over 13.5 points?
Over in 4 of 10 of his last 10 games and 3 of 9 this season, averaging 14.1 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Aaron Nesmith points?
Strong lean, under 13.5: our chance 58% against the books' 53%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is WAS a good matchup for Aaron Nesmith?
Neutral: WAS allow 113.4 points a game to all players, 15 of 30 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.