Aaron Nesmith pts + reb prop 17.5 vs WAS
Aaron Nesmith, G for IND, next plays vs WAS on Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 17.5 p+r. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 14.4 p+r, give or take 6.5; our chance of the over 29%; our own line 13.5.
- 24 minutes projected, starting
- usage up: Tyrese Haliburton, Ben Sheppard out (shots +3%, assists +7%)
Our lean
Strong lean under at 17.5: our chance of the under 60%, the books' 54%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 17.5
- Last 5: over in 1 of 5, average 15.2
- Last 10: over in 3 of 10, average 16.9
- Last 20: over in 7 of 20, average 17.4
- This season: over in 2 of 9, average 15.1
Defence vs position
WAS vs all players: neutral, 161.2 p+r allowed a game, 12 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 25%, average 16 in 4 games
- Home: over 25%, average 15 in 4 games
- Away: over 20%, average 15.2 in 5 games
- Home (next game): over 25%, average 15 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 0%, average 13 in 1 game
- Rested: over 25%, average 15.4 in 8 games
- vs WAS: over 0%, average 5 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | p+r | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at DAL | 20 | over |
| 2026-11-07 | vs DEN | 13 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | at MEM | 17 | under |
| 2026-11-01 | vs BKN | 14 | under |
| 2026-10-30 | at MIA | 12 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs PHI | 20 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | at MIL | 13 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | at BKN | 14 | under |
| 2026-10-23 | vs DAL | 13 | under |
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAC | 33 | over |
More Aaron Nesmith props
- Aaron Nesmith points (our line 10.5)
- Aaron Nesmith rebounds (our line 2.5)
- Aaron Nesmith assists (our line 1.5)
- Aaron Nesmith threes made (our line 1.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + ast (our line 12.5)
- Aaron Nesmith reb + ast (our line 4.5)
- Aaron Nesmith steals (our line 0.5)
- Aaron Nesmith blocks (our line 0.5)
- Aaron Nesmith turnovers (our line 1.5)
Aaron Nesmith player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Aaron Nesmith's pts + reb line vs WAS?
The books' line is 17.5 p+r, from 4 books. We project 14.4 and give the over 29%.
How often has Aaron Nesmith gone over 17.5 p+r?
Over in 3 of 10 of his last 10 games and 2 of 9 this season, averaging 16.9 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Aaron Nesmith pts + reb?
Strong lean, under 17.5: our chance 60% against the books' 54%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is WAS a good matchup for Aaron Nesmith?
Neutral: WAS allow 161.2 p+r a game to all players, 12 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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