Aaron Nesmith rebounds prop 3.5 vs WAS
Aaron Nesmith, G for IND, next plays vs WAS on Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 3.5 rebounds. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 3.0 rebounds, give or take 2.0; our chance of the over 36%; our own line 2.5.
- 24 minutes projected, starting
- usage up: Tyrese Haliburton, Ben Sheppard out (shots +3%, assists +7%)
Our lean
Strong lean under at 3.5: our chance of the under 56%, the books' 53%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 3.5
- Last 5: over in 1 of 5, average 2.8
- Last 10: over in 3 of 10, average 2.8
- Last 20: over in 4 of 20, average 2.5
- This season: over in 2 of 9, average 2.3
Defence vs position
WAS vs all players: favourable, 47.8 rebounds allowed a game, 3 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 25%, average 2.8 in 4 games
- Home: over 50%, average 3.5 in 4 games
- Away: over 0%, average 1.4 in 5 games
- Home (next game): over 50%, average 3.5 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 0%, average 0 in 1 game
- Rested: over 25%, average 2.6 in 8 games
- vs WAS: over 0%, average 2 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | rebounds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at DAL | 2 | under |
| 2026-11-07 | vs DEN | 5 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at MEM | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-01 | vs BKN | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-30 | at MIA | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs PHI | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-26 | at MIL | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | at BKN | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-23 | vs DAL | 4 | over |
| 2026-03-27 | vs LAC | 7 | over |
More Aaron Nesmith props
- Aaron Nesmith points (our line 10.5)
- Aaron Nesmith assists (our line 1.5)
- Aaron Nesmith threes made (our line 1.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + reb (our line 13.5)
- Aaron Nesmith pts + ast (our line 12.5)
- Aaron Nesmith reb + ast (our line 4.5)
- Aaron Nesmith steals (our line 0.5)
- Aaron Nesmith blocks (our line 0.5)
- Aaron Nesmith turnovers (our line 1.5)
Aaron Nesmith player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Aaron Nesmith's rebounds line vs WAS?
The books' line is 3.5 rebounds, from 5 books. We project 3.0 and give the over 36%.
How often has Aaron Nesmith gone over 3.5 rebounds?
Over in 3 of 10 of his last 10 games and 2 of 9 this season, averaging 2.8 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Aaron Nesmith rebounds?
Strong lean, under 3.5: our chance 56% against the books' 53%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is WAS a good matchup for Aaron Nesmith?
Favourable: WAS allow 47.8 rebounds a game to all players, 3 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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