Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points prop 33.5 at POR
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G for OKC, next plays at POR on Tue, Nov 10, 11:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 33.5 points. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 31.4 points, give or take 9.1; our chance of the over 38%; our own line 31.5.
- 33.1 minutes projected, starting
- usage up: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams out (shots +2%, assists +3%)
Our lean
Strong lean under at 33.5: our chance of the under 58%, the books' 53%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 33.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 33.8
- Last 10: over in 3 of 10, average 29.9
- Last 20: over in 5 of 20, average 29.4
- This season: over in 3 of 10, average 29.9
Defence vs position
POR vs all players: neutral, 113.8 points allowed a game, 15 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 50%, average 35.8 in 4 games
- Home: over 40%, average 29.8 in 5 games
- Away: over 20%, average 30 in 5 games
- Away (next game): over 20%, average 30 in 5 games
- Back-to-back: over 0%, average 28 in 2 games
- Rested: over 43%, average 30.1 in 7 games
- vs POR: over 0%, average 28 in 2 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | vs WAS | 30 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | at MEM | 28 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | vs CLE | 42 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | at CLE | 43 | over |
| 2026-10-31 | at HOU | 26 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | at DAL | 21 | under |
| 2026-10-26 | vs PHX | 26 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | vs LAC | 34 | over |
| 2026-10-22 | vs DEN | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-20 | at SAS | 32 | under |
More Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rebounds (our line 3.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists (our line 6.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander threes made (our line 1.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pts + reb + ast (our line 41.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pts + reb (our line 35.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pts + ast (our line 37.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reb + ast (our line 10.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals (our line 1.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks (our line 0.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnovers (our line 2.5)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's points line at POR?
The books' line is 33.5 points, from 5 books. We project 31.4 and give the over 38%.
How often has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gone over 33.5 points?
Over in 3 of 10 of his last 10 games and 3 of 10 this season, averaging 29.9 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points?
Strong lean, under 33.5: our chance 58% against the books' 53%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is POR a good matchup for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Neutral: POR allow 113.8 points a game to all players, 15 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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