Ace Bailey points prop 17.5 vs MIA
Ace Bailey, G for UTA, next plays vs MIA on Tue, Nov 10, 9:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 17.5 points. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 16.1 points, give or take 6.7; our chance of the over 40%; our own line 15.5.
- 30.6 minutes projected, starting
- usage up: Jusuf Nurkić, Lauri Markkanen out (shots +12%, assists +1%)
- UTA scorekeeper: assists +2%
Our lean
Strong lean under at 17.5: our chance of the under 58%, the books' 52%. Model and recent form both lean under.
How he has done against 17.5
- Last 5: over in 0 of 5, average 9.6
- Last 10: over in 1 of 10, average 11.9
- Last 20: over in 5 of 20, average 15.2
- This season: over in 1 of 10, average 11.9
Defence vs position
MIA vs all players: favourable, 121.1 points allowed a game, 5 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 0%, average 9.8 in 4 games
- Home: over 20%, average 13.6 in 5 games
- Away: over 0%, average 10.2 in 5 games
- Home (next game): over 20%, average 13.6 in 5 games
- Back-to-back: over 0%, average 17 in 1 game
- Rested: over 13%, average 11.3 in 8 games
- vs MIA: over 0%, average 14 in 2 games
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | at MIN | 7 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | at DAL | 12 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | at NOP | 15 | under |
| 2026-11-02 | at SAS | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-31 | vs POR | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-28 | vs SAS | 19 | over |
| 2026-10-26 | vs MEM | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | vs LAL | 17 | under |
| 2026-10-23 | vs NOP | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | at MEM | 12 | under |
More Ace Bailey props
- Ace Bailey rebounds (our line 4.5)
- Ace Bailey assists (our line 1.5)
- Ace Bailey threes made (our line 1.5)
- Ace Bailey pts + reb + ast (our line 22.5)
- Ace Bailey pts + reb (our line 20.5)
- Ace Bailey pts + ast (our line 17.5)
- Ace Bailey reb + ast (our line 6.5)
- Ace Bailey steals (our line 0.5)
- Ace Bailey blocks (our line 0.5)
- Ace Bailey turnovers (our line 1.5)
Ace Bailey player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Ace Bailey's points line vs MIA?
The books' line is 17.5 points, from 4 books. We project 16.1 and give the over 40%.
How often has Ace Bailey gone over 17.5 points?
Over in 1 of 10 of his last 10 games and 1 of 10 this season, averaging 11.9 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Ace Bailey points?
Strong lean, under 17.5: our chance 58% against the books' 52%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is MIA a good matchup for Ace Bailey?
Favourable: MIA allow 121.1 points a game to all players, 5 of 30 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.