Luka Dončić assists prop 7.5 at MIL
Luka Dončić, G for LAL, next plays at MIL on Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 7.5 assists. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 8.2 assists, give or take 3.1; our chance of the over 56%; our own line 7.5.
- 35.2 minutes projected, starting
- waiting on Quentin Grimes's status
- waiting on Austin Reaves's status
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +3%
Our lean
Lean over at 7.5: our chance of the over 47%, the books' 45%. Model and recent form disagree.
How he has done against 7.5
- Last 5: over in 2 of 5, average 8.2
- Last 10: over in 4 of 10, average 7.9
- Last 20: over in 8 of 20, average 7.6
- This season: over in 4 of 10, average 7.9
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 27.8 assists allowed a game, 6 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 40%, average 8.2 in 5 games
- Home: over 33%, average 7.8 in 6 games
- Away: over 50%, average 8 in 4 games
- Away (next game): over 50%, average 8 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 11.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 29%, average 7 in 7 games
- vs MIL: over 100%, average 9 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | assists | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at ATL | 10 | over |
| 2026-11-06 | vs POR | 5 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | at SAC | 7 | under |
| 2026-11-02 | vs MIA | 13 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs TOR | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-30 | at GSW | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | vs POR | 9 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | at UTA | 10 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs LAC | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs GSW | 7 | under |
More Luka Dončić props
- Luka Dončić points (our line 33.5)
- Luka Dončić rebounds (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić threes made (our line 4.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb + ast (our line 49.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + ast (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Luka Dončić steals (our line 1.5)
- Luka Dončić blocks (our line 0.5)
- Luka Dončić turnovers (our line 3.5)
Luka Dončić player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Luka Dončić's assists line at MIL?
The books' line is 7.5 assists, from 5 books. We project 8.2 and give the over 56%.
How often has Luka Dončić gone over 7.5 assists?
Over in 4 of 10 of his last 10 games and 4 of 10 this season, averaging 7.9 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Luka Dončić assists?
Lean, over 7.5: our chance 47% against the books' 45%. It is a lean, not a pick.
Is MIL a good matchup for Luka Dončić?
Favourable: MIL allow 27.8 assists a game to all players, 6 of 30 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.