Luka Dončić threes made prop 4.5 at MIL
Luka Dončić, G for LAL, next plays at MIL on Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 4.5 threes. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 4.4 threes, give or take 2.1; our chance of the over 44%; our own line 4.5.
- 35.2 minutes projected, starting
- waiting on Quentin Grimes's status
- waiting on Austin Reaves's status
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +3%
Our lean
No lean at 4.5: our chance of the over 51%, the books' 49%. Model and recent form disagree.
How he has done against 4.5
- Last 5: over in 4 of 5, average 5.6
- Last 10: over in 8 of 10, average 5.5
- Last 20: over in 12 of 20, average 5.0
- This season: over in 8 of 10, average 5.5
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 14.8 threes allowed a game, 4 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 80%, average 5.6 in 5 games
- Home: over 83%, average 5.3 in 6 games
- Away: over 75%, average 5.8 in 4 games
- Away (next game): over 75%, average 5.8 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 4.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 86%, average 5.9 in 7 games
- vs MIL: over 0%, average 4 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | threes | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at ATL | 3 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | vs POR | 5 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at SAC | 6 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | vs MIA | 6 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs TOR | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | at GSW | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-27 | vs POR | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | at UTA | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs LAC | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs GSW | 5 | over |
More Luka Dončić props
- Luka Dončić points (our line 33.5)
- Luka Dončić rebounds (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić assists (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb + ast (our line 49.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + ast (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Luka Dončić steals (our line 1.5)
- Luka Dončić blocks (our line 0.5)
- Luka Dončić turnovers (our line 3.5)
Luka Dončić player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Luka Dončić's threes made line at MIL?
The books' line is 4.5 threes, from 5 books. We project 4.4 and give the over 44%.
How often has Luka Dončić gone over 4.5 threes?
Over in 8 of 10 of his last 10 games and 8 of 10 this season, averaging 5.5 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Luka Dončić threes made?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 49% for the over.
Is MIL a good matchup for Luka Dončić?
Favourable: MIL allow 14.8 threes a game to all players, 4 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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