Luka Dončić points prop 34.5 at MIL
Luka Dončić, G for LAL, next plays at MIL on Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 34.5 points. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 34.1 points, give or take 9.8; our chance of the over 47%; our own line 33.5.
- 35.2 minutes projected, starting
- waiting on Quentin Grimes's status
- waiting on Austin Reaves's status
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +3%
Our lean
No lean at 34.5: our chance of the over 51%, the books' 49%. Model and recent form disagree.
How he has done against 34.5
- Last 5: over in 4 of 5, average 42.4
- Last 10: over in 7 of 10, average 39.3
- Last 20: over in 13 of 20, average 38.1
- This season: over in 7 of 10, average 39.3
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 121.2 points allowed a game, 3 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 80%, average 42.4 in 5 games
- Home: over 67%, average 38.7 in 6 games
- Away: over 75%, average 40.3 in 4 games
- Away (next game): over 75%, average 40.3 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 37 in 2 games
- Rested: over 86%, average 41.6 in 7 games
- vs MIL: over 0%, average 24 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | points | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at ATL | 32 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | vs POR | 53 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at SAC | 40 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | vs MIA | 42 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs TOR | 45 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | at GSW | 37 | over |
| 2026-10-27 | vs POR | 41 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | at UTA | 52 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs LAC | 23 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs GSW | 28 | under |
More Luka Dončić props
- Luka Dončić rebounds (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić assists (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić threes made (our line 4.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb + ast (our line 49.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + ast (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Luka Dončić steals (our line 1.5)
- Luka Dončić blocks (our line 0.5)
- Luka Dončić turnovers (our line 3.5)
Luka Dončić player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Luka Dončić's points line at MIL?
The books' line is 34.5 points, from 5 books. We project 34.1 and give the over 47%.
How often has Luka Dončić gone over 34.5 points?
Over in 7 of 10 of his last 10 games and 7 of 10 this season, averaging 39.3 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Luka Dončić points?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 49% for the over.
Is MIL a good matchup for Luka Dončić?
Favourable: MIL allow 121.2 points a game to all players, 3 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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