Luka Dončić pts + reb prop 42.5 at MIL
Luka Dončić, G for LAL, next plays at MIL on Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 42.5 p+r. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 41.7 p+r, give or take 10.7; our chance of the over 46%; our own line 41.5.
- 35.2 minutes projected, starting
- waiting on Quentin Grimes's status
- waiting on Austin Reaves's status
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +3%
Our lean
No lean at 42.5: our chance of the over 49%, the books' 47%. Model and recent form disagree.
How he has done against 42.5
- Last 5: over in 4 of 5, average 51.2
- Last 10: over in 7 of 10, average 47.1
- Last 20: over in 12 of 20, average 45.4
- This season: over in 7 of 10, average 47.1
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 170.1 p+r allowed a game, 2 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 80%, average 51.2 in 5 games
- Home: over 67%, average 46.3 in 6 games
- Away: over 75%, average 48.3 in 4 games
- Away (next game): over 75%, average 48.3 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 44.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 86%, average 49.4 in 7 games
- vs MIL: over 0%, average 33 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | p+r | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at ATL | 40 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | vs POR | 58 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at SAC | 49 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | vs MIA | 49 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs TOR | 60 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | at GSW | 44 | over |
| 2026-10-27 | vs POR | 46 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | at UTA | 60 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs LAC | 29 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs GSW | 36 | under |
More Luka Dončić props
- Luka Dončić points (our line 33.5)
- Luka Dončić rebounds (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić assists (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić threes made (our line 4.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb + ast (our line 49.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + ast (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Luka Dončić steals (our line 1.5)
- Luka Dončić blocks (our line 0.5)
- Luka Dončić turnovers (our line 3.5)
Luka Dončić player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Luka Dončić's pts + reb line at MIL?
The books' line is 42.5 p+r, from 5 books. We project 41.7 and give the over 46%.
How often has Luka Dončić gone over 42.5 p+r?
Over in 7 of 10 of his last 10 games and 7 of 10 this season, averaging 47.1 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Luka Dončić pts + reb?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 47% for the over.
Is MIL a good matchup for Luka Dončić?
Favourable: MIL allow 170.1 p+r a game to all players, 2 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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