Luka Dončić steals prop 1.5 at MIL
Luka Dončić, G for LAL, next plays at MIL on Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 1.5 steals. 4 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 1.7 steals, give or take 1.4; our chance of the over 49%; our own line 1.5.
- 35.2 minutes projected, starting
- waiting on Quentin Grimes's status
- waiting on Austin Reaves's status
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +3%
Our lean
No lean at 1.5: our chance of the over 49%, the books' 48%. Our model leans over.
How he has done against 1.5
- Last 5: over in 3 of 5, average 2.8
- Last 10: over in 5 of 10, average 2
- Last 20: over in 11 of 20, average 2.1
- This season: over in 5 of 10, average 2
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 9.6 steals allowed a game, 4 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 60%, average 2.8 in 5 games
- Home: over 50%, average 1.8 in 6 games
- Away: over 50%, average 2.3 in 4 games
- Away (next game): over 50%, average 2.3 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 100%, average 3.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 29%, average 1.4 in 7 games
- vs MIL: over 100%, average 2 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | steals | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at ATL | 5 | over |
| 2026-11-06 | vs POR | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-04 | at SAC | 1 | under |
| 2026-11-02 | vs MIA | 2 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs TOR | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | at GSW | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | vs POR | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | at UTA | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs GSW | 3 | over |
More Luka Dončić props
- Luka Dončić points (our line 33.5)
- Luka Dončić rebounds (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić assists (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić threes made (our line 4.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb + ast (our line 49.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + ast (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Luka Dončić blocks (our line 0.5)
- Luka Dončić turnovers (our line 3.5)
Luka Dončić player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Luka Dončić's steals line at MIL?
The books' line is 1.5 steals, from 4 books. We project 1.7 and give the over 49%.
How often has Luka Dončić gone over 1.5 steals?
Over in 5 of 10 of his last 10 games and 5 of 10 this season, averaging 2 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Luka Dončić steals?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 48% for the over.
Is MIL a good matchup for Luka Dončić?
Favourable: MIL allow 9.6 steals a game to all players, 4 of 30 (1 allows the most).
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