Luka Dončić pts + ast prop 42.5 at MIL
Luka Dončić, G for LAL, next plays at MIL on Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 pm ET.
The line
The books' line: 42.5 p+a. 5 books are quoting it.
Our projection
Our projection: 42.2 p+a, give or take 10.7; our chance of the over 48%; our own line 41.5.
- 35.2 minutes projected, starting
- waiting on Quentin Grimes's status
- waiting on Austin Reaves's status
- MIL scorekeeper: assists +3%
Our lean
No lean at 42.5: our chance of the over 50%, the books' 49%. Recent form leans over.
How he has done against 42.5
- Last 5: over in 4 of 5, average 50.6
- Last 10: over in 6 of 10, average 47.2
- Last 20: over in 12 of 20, average 45.7
- This season: over in 6 of 10, average 47.2
Defence vs position
MIL vs all players: favourable, 149 p+a allowed a game, 4 of 30.
Splits
- November: over 80%, average 50.6 in 5 games
- Home: over 67%, average 46.5 in 6 games
- Away: over 50%, average 48.3 in 4 games
- Away (next game): over 50%, average 48.3 in 4 games
- Back-to-back: over 50%, average 48.5 in 2 games
- Rested: over 71%, average 48.6 in 7 games
- vs MIL: over 0%, average 33 in 1 game
Game log
| Date | Opponent | p+a | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | at ATL | 42 | under |
| 2026-11-06 | vs POR | 58 | over |
| 2026-11-04 | at SAC | 47 | over |
| 2026-11-02 | vs MIA | 55 | over |
| 2026-11-01 | vs TOR | 51 | over |
| 2026-10-30 | at GSW | 42 | under |
| 2026-10-27 | vs POR | 50 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | at UTA | 62 | over |
| 2026-10-23 | vs LAC | 30 | under |
| 2026-10-21 | vs GSW | 35 | under |
More Luka Dončić props
- Luka Dončić points (our line 33.5)
- Luka Dončić rebounds (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić assists (our line 7.5)
- Luka Dončić threes made (our line 4.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb + ast (our line 49.5)
- Luka Dončić pts + reb (our line 41.5)
- Luka Dončić reb + ast (our line 15.5)
- Luka Dončić steals (our line 1.5)
- Luka Dončić blocks (our line 0.5)
- Luka Dončić turnovers (our line 3.5)
Luka Dončić player page · Every NBA player prop today
Quick answers
What is Luka Dončić's pts + ast line at MIL?
The books' line is 42.5 p+a, from 5 books. We project 42.2 and give the over 48%.
How often has Luka Dončić gone over 42.5 p+a?
Over in 6 of 10 of his last 10 games and 6 of 10 this season, averaging 47.2 over his last 10.
Do you lean over or under on Luka Dončić pts + ast?
No lean: our read sits close to the books' 49% for the over.
Is MIL a good matchup for Luka Dončić?
Favourable: MIL allow 149 p+a a game to all players, 4 of 30 (1 allows the most).
These are leans, never picks: research, not betting advice. Nothing is placed from this site. 19+, Ontario. Help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.